The Status Of Hizbullah in the Arab Spring

Hezbollah has become an integral element of the Lebanese confessional system and the cornerstone of the March 8^th coalition. Having gained effective governmental power as of 13^th June 2011, the paramilitary organisation has systematically increased its internal sphere of influence in a bid to bolster its credibility as a viable political entity. But just as its domestic success is at a high, its international standing has been eroded by the effects of the Arab Spring. Its collaboration with the Ba’ath Party in Syria and amicable relations with the Alawite Assads is viewed unfavourably by many throughout the region. The insurrectionary fervour in Syria has a distinct Sunni quality that is incompatible with the Shi’a nature of both the Alawites and Hezbollah. Any change in Damascus will have a debilitating effect on Hezbollah’s and make it more vulnerable to attack from Israel. This coupled with the suspension of Syria from the Arab league, not only signals the loss of legitimacy from one of its key partners, but also threatens to cut-off its arms supply route, essential in supporting its existence as the ‘Islamic Resistance’ (Al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya). Though talks of an impending Israeli attack on Hezbollah have circulated, this threat is negligible. It is the domino effect that the toppling of Assad will have that will determine the long-term prospects of Hezbollah’s political survival.  In the plausible scenario that the National Progressive Front (the Syrian state coalition) falters, it will have a debilitating effect on the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), a prime Hezbollah ally that fought alongside it in the 2006 July War. Notwithstanding this, Hezbollah’s continued affiliation with Iran and memory of its support against popular democratisation in the ‘Day of Rage’ will alienate support from its pro-Arab Spring constituency.  Hezbollah’s options are either to continue to entertain neutrality or to adapt to a new reality if it is to enjoy the fruits of its recent victory.

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