Flag of South Sudan
To many outside observers, the collapse of the fragile peace between Sudan and the newly independent Republic of South Sudan is simply a question of time. Increasingly aggressive rhetoric between the two governments has led to a build up of troops both sides of the border, and the aerial bombardments in Unity state last week threaten to reignite the conflict. Although Khartoum strenuously denies carrying out the attacks – including the bombing of a refugee camp at Yida on 10th November – the South Sudanese government are convinced of their guilt. The US and UN have since condemned Sudan for the attacks, and called for “maximum restraint” from both governments. However, increased danger to staff and fearing future attacks, Oxfam withdrew from Unity state on 11th November.
This particular incident is the latest in a string of attacks, both sides of the border, since South Sudan’s independence in July. And while this may not be the spark that leads to all-out war, it highlights the volatility of the situation. 2005’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) officially marked the end of the 22-year conflict, however, it left the most continuous issues unresolved – notably the border (particularly oil-rich region Abyei) and the division of oil revenues. Additionally, both countries are experiencing internal problems, which they feel could be lessened were they to control the oil wealth. The loss of revenue in the north and rising food prices have led to economic crisis in Sudan. The Khartoum government also fears an “Arab Spring style” revolt led by the newly created Sudan Revolutionary Front, a union of rebels from Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan and Darfur. Meanwhile, South Sudan is facing an impending food crisis – food prices have risen by 78.5%, and government projects to expand the country’s agricultural sector will not provide immediate relief. They are also plagued by high levels of inter-tribal conflict, which is estimated to have resulted in around 1,500 deaths and over 70,000 people displaced since independence.
Although attacks, accusations, and aggressive rhetoric between Juba and Khartoum have been commonplace for years, they now involve an international border. As such, President al-Bashir can no longer rely on the cover of internal sovereignty to keep external players, especially the UN, at bay. Therefore, with a greater risk of repercussions, each spark becomes increasingly dangerous, and the slide into war could soon become irreversible.
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